PIONEER: Preparation and Integration of Analysis Tools towards Operational Forecast of Nutrients in Estuaries of European Rivers
The basic information about the PIONEER project.
PIONEER will set up analysis systems for routine day-to-day monitoring, analysis and short-term prediction of nutrient distributions in the Odra and Ebro estuaries. The project integrates presently available technology and methodology in data management, geostatistical and dynamical data assimilation and numerical modelling in co-operation between scientific institutions, management authorities and commercial companies.
The overall approach of PIONEER parallels the analysis in weather forecasting. Point observations together with a "best guess" are processed in a data assimilation scheme. Since data assimilation with respect to nutrients is a new application three schemes of increasing complexity will be explored: simple spatial interpolation, geostatistics and dynamical data assimilation. As a by-product, the project will offer estimates of the predictability of the estuarine ecosystems on time scales of days and weeks.
The systems developed by PIONEER include:
- state-of-the-art data assimilation schemes to determine the actual spatial and temporal distribution of nutrients and parameters such as suspended sediment concentrations and phytoplankton biomass.
- dynamical models to forecast temporal and spatial evolution of nutrient concentrations and phytoplankton biomass for several days and weeks.
- data management systems for long-term storage and fast exchange.
The application of the methodologies and future steps towards an operational mode of the forecasting system will be discussed with the responsibles from politics, coastal zone management and tourism organisations in regional meetings. The project is a significant contribution to EuroGOOS that has strong emphasis in creating cost efficient operational forecasting tools.
|PIONEER (170.555 Bytes)|
|The main objective of PIONEER is the development of techniques for the day-to-day monitoring, analysis and short-term prediction of nutrient and related suspended matter distributions in estuaries. Such systems are expected to be routinely operated by management authorities as well as commercial companies in the future.
To reach the above mentioned objective the following scientific and technical goals are pursued:
- a series of analysis schemes of different complexity for the determination of the actual spatial and temporal distribution of nutrients and closely related parameters such as suspended sediment concentrations and phytoplankton biomass,
- dynamical models to forecast the temporal and spatial evolution of nutrient concentrations and phytoplankton biomass for several days and weeks,
-data management systems for long-term storage and fast exchange.
The system will be tested with historical data sets from the Odra lagoon, the estuaries of the Odra at the German-Polish border and the Ebro in northern Spain; only in case of nutrient in the Ebro estuary, PIONEER will be engaged in data sampling. These three cases have been chosen because of their different hydrological regimes and the availability of detailed data. The methodologies developed in PIONEER are transferable to other estuarine areas in Europe and world-wide.
The scientific methodology of PIONEER resembles the approach of weather forecasting. The actual point observations together with a "best guess" independent of the actual data are brought together in a data assimilation scheme which results in a space-time analysis of the system dynamically consistent with the data, the guess and the assumed dynamics of the system. This analysis, then, may be used as an initial state for a forecast. The forecast for the next observational time usually forms the above mentioned "best guess".
This concept has hardly been used for coastal zone applications. PIONEER combines available technology in data handling, geostatistics and dynamical data assimilation techniques, and dynamical forecasts and applies these to nutrient distributions. The skills and potentials of the system will be assessed for test cases of several week length to simulate "real-time" operational conditions. A hierarchy of analysis techniques, ranging form simple spatial interpolation to state-of-the-art full-fledged dynamical assimilation will be tested and compared in terms of efficiency and skill.
2. TASK STRUCTURES OF THE PROJECT
The PIONEER project is organised in two main phases. In phase 1 (task 100- task 300) the tools and data to run the operational simulations will be set up. In phase 2 (task 400 - task 600) the developed tools will be applied , tested and then assessed by user groups, such as governmental authorities.
Task 100: Setup of analysis tools
the integration of existing hydrodynamic, suspended sediment transport and nutrient dynamics models into coupled models which are calibrated to the Odra and Ebro estuarine regions. The Odra region is subdivided into the Odra river and the Odra lagoon.
the set-up of the data assimilation methods|
|Hans Prof. Dr. Storch
GKSS , Institut für Gewässerphysik / English